Social Security Is Going Down
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Today in Free Expression, columnist Matthew Continetti argues that history looks unkindly on JD Vance’s 2028 chances; Jonathan Alpert says the language of therapy has taken over relationships; and Jack Butler has had enough of Disney’s live-action remakes.
But first, we’re feeling socially insecure . . .
What, Me Worry?
—Matthew Hennessey
Social Security is heading for insolvency. That line has been humming in the background of our politics for so long that most of us don’t even hear it any more. If we see mention of the coming collapse in an article, our eyes glaze over. If someone mentions it on TV, we tune out.
This complacency is the natural result of humanity’s limitless capacity to ignore the future and focus on today. Mmmm, donuts. Plus, the collapse is never that imminent.
Says here the trust fund will go bust in . . . 17½ years! We’ll probably be rich by then! Let’s order sushi.
With Social Security, the danger is always clear, but never present. Might as well go about your business. If things get bad enough, someone will figure something out.
What if someone doesn’t? The problem is so severe, and the political incentives so misaligned, that it’s easy to imagine everybody standing back and watching as the whole brittle business comes crashing down.
A major belt-tightening event is closer than ever. As of last month, the Social Security retirement trust fund is projected to run dry in late 2032. If that happens, benefits will be slashed for everyone in the program. Right now, that’s 56 million people. It will be more in 2032.
“Unless Congress shores up the retirement program, the depletion of reserves would trigger a 22% reduction in benefits in late 2032,” reports the Journal. What do you imagine would be the economic consequences of asking 16% of the U.S. population to take a cut of that size to their incomes? It won’t be good.
What is to be done?
To shore up the system, lawmakers could borrow more, raise taxes, reduce benefits or reach an agreement that combines those measures. “There have not yet been serious public conversations about what they might do,” said Kathleen Romig, senior fellow at the progressive Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
No serious public conversations. We are six years away from insolvency. That means it isn’t a tomorrow problem anymore. It’s a today problem. As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget notes, “senators elected this year will be in office when Social Security’s retirement fund is exhausted.” Let me know if you hear any of them talking about it.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R., La.) is one of the few senators in either party to have made Social Security reform a legislative priority. Unfortunately, he lost his primary in May to President Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and is on his way out of Washington. Ms. Letlow’s campaign website features 17 issue areas. “Stand With President Trump” and “Make America Healthy Again” made the list. “Save Social Security” didn’t.
Mr. Trump will also be leaving town in early 2029. Unless a gigantic bag of money marked “For Social Security Only” falls from the sky, he will be the last president who can realistically ignore this problem. Future presidents will find it hard to promise the moon while the sky is actually falling.
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They See-Saw It All: Today’s kids are obese, never play outside, and are on screens all day. Then there are Hannah Bruner and Wilder McGraw, two 8-year-old Manhattanites who spent nine hours breaking the world record for most playgrounds played on in a single day. The 21-mile journey required some strategizing for efficiency. But by 5 p.m., the playful pair, accompanied by one parent each, visited 41 playgrounds, shattering the previous record of 26. “I’ve always wanted to break a world record,” young Mr. McGraw told the New York Post. — Jack Butler
Let’s Not Fall Backward: The House passed a bill to make daylight saving time permanent. It faces an uncertain future in the Senate. Lawmakers on both sides are concerned that the Sunshine Protection Act would result in dangerously dark winter mornings, disrupting people’s circadian rhythms and forcing kids to walk to school in blackness. Yet most Americans don’t want to keep changing their clocks each year. Like President Trump, more people would prefer later, brighter days. Imagine a mid-January sunset in at 5:53 PM instead of 4:43 PM. If the bill goes through, it could help cure seasonal depression. — Mary Julia Koch
Recent Chinese Secret: A California man has been sentenced to a year of house arrest for stealing $200,000 worth of valuable Chinese texts, including a 17th-century Qing Dynasty manuscript. The man used a series of aliases and fake IDs to check out the texts from UCLA’s rare-books collection. Once he had the documents, he swapped them out with convincingly forged replacements. While the FBI didn’t say what the thief planned to do with the documents, the scheme does seem a bit like something out of a “National Treasure” movie, though with less Nicholas Cage. — Emma Camp
Vance Has a Steep Climb to the White House
Matthew Continetti
Vice presidents have few official duties, but they’re uniquely well-positioned to capture convention delegates.
JD Vance is all but guaranteed to win the GOP nomination. Winning the presidency will be the bigger challenge.
Read Matthew’s Column ⧁
Therapy Culture Swipes the Dating Apps
Patients once came in to my therapy practice trying to make sense of feelings. Now they often arrive with an explanation already in hand. Dating apps changed how people meet. Therapy culture changed how they think about meeting.
By Jonathan Alpert
Enough With the Disney Remakes
“Moana,” Disney’s latest live-action remake, flopped in its opening weekend, dramatically underperforming expectations. The appeal of this kind of movie is likely eroding. It’s easy to see why.
Goodbye Darkness, My Old Friend
A startup wants to light up the night using giant space mirrors. Do the rest of us get a say in this wild scheme?
By James B. Meigs
What Nolan’s ‘Odyssey’ Leaves Out
The hotly anticipated mega-spectacle is, in the end, pretty good. But it isn’t Homer.
By Spencer Klavan
Democratic Socialists Get Scandinavia Wrong
The far left is telling supporters that the Nordic region is a socialist paradise. Not quite.
By Mary Julia Koch
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Washington DC has been kicking this can down the road for years, decades…
Thanks for at least reporting on the social security issue.